SPECIAL
🥳The Tenure View — Special Edition (New Year’s Day)
Welcome to The Tenure View, Rain outside. Rent pressure inside. And a new rulebook for 2026.
Los Angeles is starting 2026 the way it ended 2025: wet, expensive, and tense—but with one real policy shift that could change the texture of renting for a lot of people this year.
If you’re in an older apartment covered by the city’s Rent Stabilization Ordinance (RSO), your annual rent increase is about to get smaller and more predictable. If you’re not in an RSO unit, the headline may still matter—because it signals where the city is heading and how renters (and landlords) are responding to affordability pressure.
Let’s break down what’s changing, what isn’t, and what to watch in 2026.
1) LA’s new rent caps: what’s actually changing (and who it applies to)
Starting February 2026, Los Angeles will limit annual rent increases for most RSO units to 1%–4%, tied to local inflation—down from the old 3%–8% cap that existed for decades.
Who it covers
This applies to most multifamily apartments under the city’s RSO—around 651,000 rent-stabilized apartments, home to over 1.5 million Angelenos.
Who it does not cover
Single-family homes (generally exempt)
Newer apartments (generally exempt)
And importantly: if a unit turns over, rent can still often reset to market (so this is stability for existing tenants, not a full affordability fix).
What the new rules also add
No rent increases for adding certain dependents, like babies or elderly family members under care.
Outdated utility add-ons are removed (previously there were add-ons tied to gas/electricity in some cases).
Landlords can still raise rent up to 10% for additional non-dependent occupants.
Translation: if you’re trying to stay put, this is designed to reduce “surprise” spikes and punishments for normal life changes (like having a child).
2) Will this actually help renters right now?
Here’s where it gets interesting: the market is softening a bit, even as affordability remains brutal.
The median rent in the LA metro was $2,776 (November), compared to a national median of $1,693.
LA rents were reported down ~2% year-over-year.
One economist’s take: because rents are already cooling, the cap may not change the market overnight—but it does change the “ceiling” landlords can hit you with if inflation jumps or if your building owner decides to push increases harder.
Translation: this isn’t a magic discount—it’s a seatbelt.
3) Why landlords are worried (and why renters still want this)
Landlords and developers are making two loud arguments:
Landlord concern #1: “We can’t maintain buildings with tighter caps.”
They’re pointing to:
Higher financing costs (rates are up from the cheap-money era)
Rising insurance costs
Higher labor/material costs
And they’re warning that smaller operators will sell, and some investors will avoid LA altogether.
Landlord concern #2: “This scares off new housing.”
Developers (and some location/investment advisors) say tighter regulation signals “risk,” and could slow new apartment construction—exactly what LA needs more of.
At the same time, renters (and many advocates) argue:
Rent unpredictability is one of the biggest drivers of forced moves
Even small annual increases can break a budget when you’re already stretched
One renter put it plainly: it doesn’t make LA “affordable,” but it adds predictability—and predictability is survival when you’re living on tight margins.
4) The bigger problem: most renters are still drowning
A new national renting survey (Zumper) reads like a group chat from hell:
59% of renters say they’re rent-burdened (paying more than 30% of income).
Renters say a “reasonable” share would be 28%, but they report spending ~40% on average.
82% say they lack confidence in the U.S. economy.
66% believe the U.S. is in a recession.
Fully remote work is down to 12% (from ~25% in 2021–2023).
And nearly 10% of renters said they used AI tools like ChatGPT to help with apartment hunting—up to 15% in major coastal cities.
Translation: this is not just “rent is high.” It’s rent is high + paychecks aren’t keeping up + people feel stuck.
So a rent cap doesn’t solve the whole thing. But it does reduce one of the biggest pain points: the fear of your housing cost spiking faster than your life can handle.
5) 2026 housing outlook: “more consistent” doesn’t mean “easier”
A separate LA housing indicators report paints a slow, cautious 2026:
Home sales volume in LA County is still low (2024 was far below pre-pandemic “normal” levels).
For-sale inventory is up (Oct 2025 inventory up ~14% YoY).
The report expects prices to slip in 2026, with a potential bottom around 2027–2028, followed by a rebound driven by investors first, then buyers.
On the ground, this matters for renters because:
When buying is far more expensive than renting, more people stay renters longer.
If the economy softens, households double up, move less, and competition shifts neighborhood-by-neighborhood.
If sales stay low, fewer homeowners list properties, and rental supply pressures can stick around.
Translation: 2026 may be “less chaotic,” but not automatically “more affordable.”
A fun “What To Do This Week” (New Year’s Edition — rain-friendly)
Because yes, we’re still going outside. We’re just doing it with a hood on.
1) Rose Parade + Pasadena vibes (rain edition)
The Rose Parade is happening in the rain—a rare sight (it hasn’t rained on the parade in about 20 years).
If you’re already in Pasadena, lean in and enjoy the “only in LA” weirdness.
Bonus: After the parade, you can see floats up close at Floatfest (through Saturday). There’s an entry fee, and shuttles typically run from places like Caltech/PCC areas.
2) Metro is your friend today
If you’re moving around early, Metro has been pushing expanded service for New Year’s and free/extended fare windows around parade timing. Translation: it’s one of the rare times public transit is actually the easiest option.
3) Rain-safe cozy list
Pick one neighborhood and do a “third place” afternoon: coffee → bookstore → museum → early dinner.
If you’re near a burn zone or hillsides: don’t test nature this week. Saturated soil + wind + rain is not the time to “go explore.”
The Tenure View’s Take
2026 doesn’t need to be your “big comeback year.” It can be your stability year.
This new rent cap isn’t a miracle. It won’t make LA cheap. It won’t stop every landlord from trying to “work around” the rules. And it won’t help renters in units that aren’t covered.
But it does something important:
It reduces the chaos tax.
That tax is the constant low-grade fear of:
“What if they raise it again?”
“What if I can’t renew?”
“What if my life changes and my rent punishes me for it?”
So here’s the tone I want for your year:
1) Make your housing plan real (not vibes)
Confirm if your unit is RSO-covered.
Track your rent increase history.
Start a “rent file” (lease, notices, repairs, communication) like your housing depends on it—because it does.
2) Choose predictability over perfect
If you’re in a stable unit at a survivable rate, 2026 might be the year you:
stop chasing “ideal”
and start building margin (savings, debt reduction, income stability)
3) Use the system—without letting it use you
This city is going to keep shifting: policy, storms, markets, jobs, prices.
Your goal isn’t to win every battle. Your goal is to stay housed, stay calm, and stay ready.
If you want, send us your building type + year built + neighborhood and we’ll help you figure out the most likely category (RSO vs not), plus what to watch for in your next renewal notice.
❤️ A Note to Readers
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